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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.